Dolphins at Bengals: Times, Live Streaming, How to Watch, Featured Matchups, 'Thursday Night Football' Selection

The Miami Dolphins have passed every test thrown at them so far. In Week 1 Bill he defeated the Patriots in Belichick, in Week 2 Lamar he beat Jackson and Baltimore his Ravens, and in Week 3 Super Bowl favorite Buffalo pushed his Bills out of the unbeaten streak. rice field. in the form of the defending AFC champions, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Joe Burrow and Co. take their first win of the season. They’ve previously gone 2-0 against the likes of Mitchell Trubisky’s Pittsburgh Steelers and Cooper Rush’s Dallas Cowboys. So this is probably the toughest opponent we’ve ever faced. This is especially true of Miami’s style of defense that could pose significant problems for the Bengals.

So can the Dolphins stay undefeated, or will the Bengals give them their first loss of the young season? Before we delve into the matchups, here’s how to watch the game.

Viewing method

date: Thursday, September 29th | time: 8:20 PM ET
position: PayCor Stadium (Cincinnati)
stream: amazon prime video
follow: CBS Sports App
odds: Bengals -4, O/U 47

Featured games | | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

when the dolphin has the ball

Earlier this season, the Dolphins are arguably the most attractive offense in the NFL. New head coach Mike McDaniel was San Francisco’s run game coordinator and was expected to bring a Kyle Shanahan-style offense that relied heavily on the concept of runs and play action and bootleg passes. That’s just part of it.

According to Tru Media, Miami ranks second in the NFL for higher-than-expected pass rates rather than more runs. McDaniels certainly incorporates some of Shanahan’s concepts into their run games, especially the play action, but the Dolphins operate at a much higher rate off the shotgun, making far more run passes than McDaniels’ previous team. We embrace the concept of options – perhaps because Tua Tagovailoa is where we are most comfortable.

So far all of this has worked very well. The Dolphins currently rank him fourth in third-down conversion percentage and share of plays that get 10 or more yards. He ranks third in yards per play and completion rate. His second in the EPA per play and shares of drives that went three-and-out. First in points per drive. They are razor-spanning defenses at any speed they can throw into the field. Tyreek Hill gets a lot of attention in every snap. Used by Jaylen Waddle. Both of these players open wide throwing lanes in the middle of the field.

The only thing not working at a high level is the run game itself, which is an interesting development. Neither Chase Edmonds nor Raheem Mostert have really been able to stay on track so far. Some of them will face his three opponents who are good at stopping runs for the Patriots, Ravens and Bills. Part of it is the offensive line, which, although improved, is still below average. And sometimes the running backs themselves aren’t doing much in the way of breaking tackles or creating yardage after contact.

No rush to success, but Miami’s play-action pass offense was elite. When the Dolphins made his fake run on first down, Tagovailoa had him 19 of his 23 passes (82.6%) for 289 yards (12.6 yards per attempt). Did. He took only one sack on these dropbacks and 26.1% of the time he threw the ball 20 yards or more downfield. All went well, and he recorded his EPA per play average, his fourth-best in the league on those plays.

The question in this game isn’t whether the Dolphins can find a way to move the ball on the ground, but rather whether Cincinnati’s linebackers and safety can resist the temptation of the Dolphins to match and get into play. actually throw the ball. One wrong step and the leech, waddle, or both will beat you. So far, Tagaviailoa has demonstrated the ability to find them in open space with a high level of consistency. Assuming he’s under center, the only way to prevent that is to dominate the game up front and move him out of there as soon as he reaches the top of the drop back. He doesn’t take a lot of traditional dropbacks because he frequently operates from the gun.

when the Bengals have the ball

It’s probably no coincidence that Cincinnati have their best game of the season, covering 36.7% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 1 against the Steelers and 50% of dropbacks in Week 2 against the Cowboys. After facing 2, the Bengals saw one cover 2 snap against the Jets in Week 3, according to Tru Media. In his first two games, Barrow against cover two he had 243 yards, three interceptions, and a staggering nine sacks with which he recorded 25 of 34 innings. It’s worth noting that Barrow faced Cover-2 only last season as he was dropped back 77 times. The incredible increase earlier this year may have been designed to take away some of the “Let’s Throw in Jammer Chase.” Last year’s hugely successful side business in Cincinnati.

The Dolphins have played cover two on 14.6% of their pass snaps this season, up from last year’s 7.6% mark. They were primarily a single high-coverage team, but played cover 1 or cover 3 57.5% of the snaps. They also have Cover-0 at 14.6%, by far the highest rate in the NFL. Defensive It will be interesting to see how his coordinator Josh Boyer balances out in this matchup. Miami loves the Blitz, and doing so could overwhelm the Bengals’ offensive line. But the Dolphins may not need to blitz often to put pressure on Burrow. Leaving more defenders in cover could allow them to tap into more of the 2-high stuff that has plagued the Bengals so far this season.

The decision Boyer makes can be seen through the prism of second-year safety Jevon Holland, an absolute threat across the field. Under pressure and 1.5 sacks. With 129 coverage snaps, he was targeted just five of his, and for 37 yards he allowed three completions and he allowed one interception. He’s often line-up as a true free-for-his safety, but according to Pro Football Focus, he fell in the box on his 21 snaps, and from the slot he took 17 snaps and 15. Played along his line defensively in the inning snap. He’s a chess piece whose moves can be used to dictate what the offense needs to do at a particular snap. However, Miami can rotate into any number of coverages or blitzes regardless of where they were before the snap, so his placement usually doesn’t matter much.

Playing more two-high looks (pre-snap, not necessarily post-snap) invites and often tempts opponents to run the ball. Cincinnati has been very unsuccessful in his game in runs so far this season, with yards per carry, his EPA per rush, football he’s 30 in Rush for the Outsiders and his offensive DVOA. I am recording my rank. Joe Mixon is averaging a formidable 2.8 yards per tote, and he’s just 0.91 yards before contact. He has been tackled at or behind his line of scrimmage more times (29.3%) than he has gained 5 yards or more (26.7%). In other words, the offensive line change that was supposed to be a dramatic upgrade isn’t working at all. Miami is 7th in the rush defense DVOA so far this season, so it’s at least somewhat unlikely that the Bengals will have much rushing success here.

Instead, the Bengals may have to rely on individual-level wins from Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst to move the ball. Of course, that group can do more than that. Especially with Byron in the second corner his Jones still out and Xavien his Howard playing with a soft tissue injury that could cause damage to the perimeter by that crew. The Dolphins could probably do the same to the Bengals by simply forcing the Bills to go down the field all through last week’s game.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 Bengals 24